MIHLogo.jpg

This site  The Web 

Archive Newer | Older

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

On the topic of Black Swans...

As an experienced Risk Manager I would like to share my thoughts concerning "Black Swans"; those "in hindsight it was foreseeable" events that few will foresee and even less will acknowledge.

The mother of all dust storms engulfs Phoenix

Black Swans can strike at the strangest of times…usually when they are least appreciated.  Even more importantly is the fact that they often occur when they are least anticipated.  That is the essential nature of a Black Swan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

See also outliers: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

More to follow...

Braun Tacon
1:46 pm pdt 


Archive Newer | Older

BraunsBlog...Random musings on specific topics.  The central themes will be ITIL V.3, Information Security, and other sundry ITSM topics.  That said, there are many more things in this world on which to opine, so don't be surprised if I do now and then.

About me...Braun Tacon, Portland Oregon.  Husband, father, aviator and former Air Traffic Controller with over 20 years experience in the Information Technology and IT Service Management field, the last thirteen years of which having been spent at a Fortune 500 in the Pacific Northwest. 

Professional background and certifications include Aviation Management, Education, Systems Management, Information Security and Process, Standards and Quality Management.  Always delivered with a strong focus on ITIL and similar Process Improvement Frameworks such as LEAN, SixSigma and TQM (Thank you Mr. Deming!).

Hobbies include reading, writing, and even the occasional Karaoke contest!

All opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone.

Contact me...

Questions?  Comments?  Suggestions?  You may contact me at btacon@BraunsBlog.com.

BraunsBlog - 99 and 44 one hundredth percent pure ITIL...66 one hundredth percent pure Braun

ITIL3ServiceLifecycle.jpg